First steps in forecasting the health workforce in Kazakhstan: A baseline scenario

Azamat Kharin 1, Berik Koichubekov 1 * , Bauyrzhan Omarkulov 1, Marina Sorokina 1, Ilya Korshukov 1, Nazgul Omarbekova 1
More Detail
1 Department of Informatics and Biostatistics, Karaganda Medical University, Karaganda city, Republic of Kazakhstan
* Corresponding Author
J CLIN MED KAZ, Volume 18, Issue 3, pp. 40-45.
Download Full Text (PDF)


Background: The purpose of this study was to consider the basic scenario for predicting the need for general practitioners in Kazakhstan until 2030.
Material and methods: A basic health care human resource planning model consists of supply and demand components, analysis of the outcomes of the prediction, and planning future actions. Stock-flow consistent model was built by using current situation and projected Kazakhstan population, retirement rate, attrition rate and adding the estimated number of new graduates.
Results: According to the proposed scenario, in some years of the forecast period, both an excess and a lack of a general practitioners offer are possible. The largest surplus, 226 doctors, is predicted in 2024. However, starting in 2027 their shortage is possible, with a peak of 339 general practitioners in 2030.
Conclusion: Considered scenario leads to the fact that inflow does not cover the increasing needs of primary health care associated with population growth. In this case, our forecast is the basis for medical schools to adjust the number of general practitioners students in internship, seeking a balance of supply and demand.


Kharin A, Koichubekov B, Omarkulov B, Sorokina M, Korshukov I, Omarbekova N. First steps in forecasting the health workforce in Kazakhstan: A baseline scenario. J CLIN MED KAZ. 2021;18(3):40-5.


  • World Health Organization. Global strategy on human resources for health: workforce 2030. Geneva: WHO; 2015. 25 p.
  • Minimum Planning data requirements for health Workforce Planning. Joint Action Health Workforce Planning and Forecasting D.051 – Release 1 available at
  • Roberfroid D, Leonard C, Stordeur S. Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball. Human Resources for Health. 2009; 7(10): 1-13.
  • Hall TL. Demand and supply. In: Hall TL, Mejia A., editors. Health manpower planning: principles, methods, issues. Geneva: WHO; 1978: p. 57–116.
  • Models and tools for health planning and projections. Geneva: WHO; 2010. 19 p.
  • McQuide P, Stevens J, Settle D. An overview of human resources for health (HRH) projection models: Technical brief 12. Chapel Hill: The Capacity Project; 2008. 4 p.
  • Dreesch N. et al. An approach to estimating human resource requirements to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Health Policy and Planning. 2005; 20(5): 267–276.
  • Malgieri A, Michelutti P, Van Hoegaerden M. Handbook on Health Workforce Planning Methodologies across EU countries. Slovakia: Joint Action Health Workforce Programming & Forecasting, Funded by the Health Programme of the European Union; 2015
  • Al-Sawai A, Al-Shishtawy MM. Health Workforce Planning: An overview and suggested approach in Oman. Sultan Qaboos University medical journal. 2015; 15(1): 27-33.
  • Roberfroid D, Leonard C, Stordeur S. Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball? Human Resources for Health. 2009; 7: 10.
  • Koikov VV, Turumbetova TB, Zhashkenova NS. et al. Methods of planning and forecasting human resources health care in terms of compulsory social health insurance. Astana: Republican Center for Healthcare Development; 2016
  • Godley W, Cripps F. Macroeconomics. London: Fontana,1983. 200 p.
  • Godley W, Lavoie M. Monetary Economics: an integrated approach to credit, money, income, production and wealth. London: Palgrave-Mac Millan; 2007. 530 p.
  • Kinsella S, Greiff M, Nell EJ. Income distribution in a stock-flow consistent model with education and technological change. Eastern Economic Journal. 2011; 37(1): 134-149.
  • Copeland MA. Social accounting for money flows. The Accounting Review 1949; 24(3): 254-264.
  • Ministerstvo zdravoohranenija Respubliki Kazahstan. Nacionalnaja politika upravlenija kadrovymi resursami zdravoohranenija, Astana, 2017, 21 p.Национальная%20политика%20управления%20КРЗ.pdf
  • The demographic forecast of the Republic of Kazakhstan: main trends, challenges, practical recommendations. Order of the Minister of Health of the Republic of Kazakhstan; 2010.Демографическая%20политика/4.2%20рус.pdf