Surgery and Survival in Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: A Bayesian Inference

Ruslan Akhmedullin 1, Zhandos Burkitbayev 2 * , Tair Koishibayev 2, Zhanat Spatayev 2, Abylaikhan Sharmenov 2, Oxana Shatkovskaya 2, Dinara Zharlyganova 2, Almira Manatova 2, Zhuldyz Kuanysh 2, Sanzhar Shalekenov 2
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1 Independent Researcher
2 Department of Science, National Research Oncology Centre, Astana, Kazakhstan
* Corresponding Author
J CLIN MED KAZ, Volume 22, Issue 6, pp. 96-102. https://doi.org/10.23950/jcmk/17473
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Author Contributions: Conceptualization, R.A. and Z.B.; methodology, O.S., Z.K., A.M.; formal analysis and investigation, D.Z., Z.K., Z.S.; writing – original draft preparation, S.S., T.K., Z.S., A.S.; writing – review and editing, Z.B., S.S., D.Z., Z.B.; supervision, Z.B. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Data availability statement: The corresponding author can provide the data supporting the study's conclusions upon request. Due to ethical and privacy constraints, the data are not publicly accessible.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Disclosure Statement: AI-Unassisted Work.

Ethics approval consent to participate: This study was approved by the Institutional Review Ethics Committee of the NROC (NROC-IREC – 034, July 30, 2025). Given the retrospective nature of the study and the fact that complete anonymization of all patient data was ensured, the Institutional Review Ethics Committee waived the requirement for informed consent.

ABSTRACT

Background: Conventional approaches often struggle to draw inferences from limited data. We aimed to determine whether Bayesian perspectives improve computation and increase clarity when inferring from small series.
Methods: We conducted a retrospective longitudinal study. The participants were who underwent curative liver resection for ICC. Bayesian proportional hazards models were used to analyse postsurgical survival. Three scenarios were used to model overall survival; all estimates were then compared with the largest meta-analysis.
Results: The final cohort included 14 patients with resectable ICC with median follow-up duration of 14.68 months (IQR 10.77 - 19.84). While the model with non-informative priors revealed unstable estimates, the models with informative and less informative priors demonstrated consistent and reliable effects. The estimates from the latter models aligned with those reported in the meta-analysis. The posterior probabilities of null value exceedance (i.e., HR > 1.0) for age, sex, lymph node metastasis, and positive surgical margin were 98%, 93%, 100%, and 48%, respectively, albeit (in frequentist terms) non-significant for all but lymph node metastasis.
Conclusion: The Bayesian framework offers a promising strategy that overcomes the limitations of the frequentist approach, contributing to the advancement of inferences from limited data.
Keywords: ICC, Survival, Mortality, Bayesian Analysis, Methodology

CITATION

Akhmedullin R, Burkitbayev Z, Koishibayev T, Spatayev Z, Sharmenov A, Shatkovskaya O, et al. Surgery and Survival in Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: A Bayesian Inference. J CLIN MED KAZ. 2025;22(6):96-102. https://doi.org/10.23950/jcmk/17473

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